Friday 13 January 2006

A dark cloud over Minas Tirith.

Something is stirring in Mordor and I'm not sure what it means, something doesn't add up. Why is Sauron the second shaking his fist towards the West ?

An obvious answer of course is the Alliance has committed so much to removing Sauron the first from his seat of power whence he exterminated by conservative estimates (those of the anti-war faction) 5% of his own population, in a war that has become very unpopular indeed, that no-one will dare do anything.
However .... he has annoyed others.

By making outrageous statements about how Israel should cease to exist, he has annoyed, unsurprisingly, Israel. But he has also annoyed Germany with this. Angela Merkel is far more conservative than Shroeder, even as we speak she is whispering sweet nothings into the ear of Dzhoardzhe Boosh. (Sorry, I just love the way the French TV newscasters pronounce his name, all soft J's and oo's). But sensitivities too. Germans are so desperately sensitive about their historic relationship with the Jewish people.

I found an article by a Guardian journo which allowed me to understand what I had been seeking, why Sharon has become so important to the Israeli people. In a very small and over simplified nutshell, the way I read this is that because he was a strong and aggressive leader, hostile towards Palestine for so long, when he decided enough was enough and started to consolidate and make peace for his people they trusted him enough to go wherever he led.

Iran has had controversial historical links with France too, you remember that Khomeini
spent time in exile there, but she has been closely involved with the monitoring of the whole foot stamping 'we will enrich our Uranium to Nuclear Weapons grade if we want to' fiasco in Iran, so France has also been right royally pissed off too.

The threat to throw out the UN inspectors rings a bell does it not? This time however, everyone is shouting NO WAR from the rooftops. The Iranian President does not have the history of genocide and violence that Hussein had. But although not a religious leader he has been trying very hard to make this a religious issue. Does he think that by shouting loud enough the Muslims who live peacefully in a milieu of religious tolerance in the west will rise up and overturn governments? Undoubtedly one or two would, but I doubt it would happen en masse, Islam is embedded now in western culture, not to the same extent as in Mahmoud's 'Muslim lands' but embedded and part of it nonetheless.

Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980, resulting in a massive debt of $800 billion by the end of military action in 1988, led to Iraq invading the country it owed most of the money to, Kuwait. Does the President of Iraq see this as the paradigm that will stop the Alliance from taking action? Does he think the UN will yet again fail to clarify what it means by 'serious consequences'? Or does he know something we don't. The history between Iran and Iraq clearly shows poor relations. And yet......and yet..... In April of 1991, Hussein was told to and agreed to, get rid of its chemical, nuclear and biological weapons. Despite the now infamous failure of allied forces to find the legendary WMD, by the time the UN inspectors were told to leave Iraq, tons of nerve gas, anthrax and thousands of chemical bombs were still unaccounted for. Can you put those things down the leg of your trousers and whistle Dixie while you trail them around on your way home from the supermarket? Possibly not.

Like I said, stirrings in Mordor and tremors throughout Shelob's web. You can't help wondering what's going on.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

What a lovely political statement or should I say statements. Not sure I agree with you nor do I understand the situation as well asyou seem to. But nevertheless, you make me think -- which is good, I guess.
Your'e doing a lot of mind wandering in Mordor before you leave for the UK, aren't you?

Anonymous said...

"unaccounted for" - yes yes, prickly statement but they have never made clear which intelligence was to blame for the "WMD fiasco" can't have been all of it from all of the contries involved and the UN after the gulf war and right up until the beginning of the Millenium, so where did it all go?
I think you're implying that Mahmoud Ahmedinejad knows something, but I don't think that's possible, too much bad blood there, even though the I-I war was about territory, is that hwat you mean that it could be in the disputed territory that Saddam made unusable? I still don't think so, I think he wants a jihad really, or some Islamic empire. Food for thought though.

Schneewittchen said...

I'm sure I'll be expected to have kept up with all the political stuff when I get back to the UK Anne, in fact I'll prolly have to comment on the Canadian election and I still don't understand that. I am also aware that I haven't been following Tony's Education Bill which is causing furore, I need to catch up.

s-d, yes, I know, it's not a very um...coherent thought, I just think there is a mystery about the whole way he's been behaving, like there's a piece of the jigsaw missing. I think you're right though, too much bad blood as you say for any collusion.